USDA forecasting year-on-year wheat growth, WA prospects soar (2024)

USDA forecasting year-on-year wheat growth, WA prospects soar (1)

Crop prospects in parts of the country previously struggling, such as the Wimmera, pictured, have improved markedly in the past week. Photo by Gregor Heard.

The US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) is forecasting an 8.6 per cent year on year increase in Australia's wheat crop.

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FAS, which is influential globally with its production updates, had the Aussie wheat crop flagged at 29 million tonnes last week, prior to good rain through parts of Victoria and South Australia, where crops were struggling.

This is up from its 26m tonne estimate of the 2023-24 crop, but slightly down on what private forecasters are looking at, generally just in excess of 30m tonnes.

Report author Zeljko Biki said this figure was based on an increase in wheat plantings, with failed canola crops resown into wheat in Western Australia a contributing factor in this rise.

Mr Biki said the solid prospects in NSW and Queensland, on the back of above average to well above average soil moisture, were counteracted by the low soil moisture in Victoria, South Australia and WA at seeding, although large parts of WA have made up for that since with well above average winter rainfall.

Mr Biki said with the Bureau of Meteorology outlook for the coming months forecasting a high likelihood of above-average rainfall across the eastern states of Australia and South Australia, and for Western Australia an equal chance of above and below-average rainfall, the forecast year is likely to bring wheat and barley production to the previous 10-year average or a little higher.

Meanwhile, in the west, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) made a sharp lift in its month on month production estimate for the state.

In its recently released August numbers GIWA raised total WA grain production 7pc to 17.4m tonnes, up from 16.3m tonnes last month.

Crop report author Michael Lamond said continuing rain across the majority of WA grain growing regions, combined with warm weather in recent weeks, had given crops a big kick along, with potential for the crop to achieve above average yields.

"For most regions, the crop-yield potential is currently sitting around recent high averages, rather than longer-term averages, as it was a month ago," Mr Lamond said.

"Soil-moisture reserves are gradually improving, and the crops have accelerated their development to be close to normal, rather than behind in growth stages as they were in July before the rain started to fall," he said.

Wheat production has cracked through the 10m tonne mark, at 10.05m tonnes, up 850,000 tonnes month on month, however the canola estimate dipped further, with 100,000 tonnes shaved off the July estimate to 2.12m tonnes, with some paddocks resown to cereals following the dry autumn.

Mr Lamond said the rainfall had sparked another round of top-dressing nitrogen fertiliser as farmers looked to maximise yield potential from the suddenly more favourable season.

He said there was scope for further production upside, with the potential for the total grain output to push well into the high teens in terms of millions of tonnes produced.

However, this will require a kind finish to the season.

"To achieve this, rainfall needs to be at least in the decile 5 range for the remainder of August and September, and heat will need to hold off during critical grain-fill periods."

While most of the state is tracking well, Mr Lamond said not all regions have continued to improve, and some areas within the Great Southern and Esperance regions are well down on average annual rainfall.

USDA forecasting year-on-year wheat growth, WA prospects soar (2)

Gregor Heard

National Grains Industry Reporter

Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria.He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role.Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land.Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies.Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.

Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria.He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role.Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land.Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies.Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.

USDA forecasting year-on-year wheat growth, WA prospects soar (2024)
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